We do not expect the weakness witnessed in 2013, but a difficult February 2015 thus far warrants another look at assessing interest rate risk, especially given the likely start of Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hikes later this year.
Sector allocation, maturity exposure, time horizon, and whether interest income is reinvested or simply spent, all influence potential total returns during a potential bear market for bonds.
Download the full version of Reassessing Interest Rate Risk: click here to download (PDF).
Fixed income markets showed signs of a growth scare in July 2015, with lower real yields, lower inflation expectations, and a flatter yield curve.
The markets’ reaction may be a signal to the Fed that September 2015 is too early for an interest rate increase.
Recent growth concerns may be creating opportunities.
Download the full version of Summer Growth Concerns: click here to download (PDF).
We continue to expect roughly flat bond returns for 2015, as the choppy market environment witnessed over the first half of 2015 continues.
The challenging, low-return environment confronting bond investors is likely to persist.
Download the full version of Hammer Flat: Midyear Bond Market Outlook, click here to download (PDF).
June 2, 2015 - Key Takeaways
Lingering uncertainty over Greece, U.S. economic growth, and the Fed may continue to create a tug-of-war on bond prices that will likely continue to lead to a low-return environment.
We believe additional bond market strength is likely limited.
Download the full version of Bond Tug-of-War: click here to download (PDF).
February 3, 2015 - Key Takeaways
A soft start for the U.S. stock market in 2015 once again illustrates the diversification benefit of high-quality bonds even at very low yields.
Even in a low-yield environment, bonds provide a cushion as price movements, not yields, are the primary buffer to equity movements.
An allocation to core bonds, in addition to more attractively valued high-yield bonds, may make sense for investors.
Download the full version of Why Own Bonds?, click here to download (PDF).